A motorsailer may not be the fastest boat, but it will always get there In my newsletter I track two exceedingly simple models, one for value and one for momentum, as applied to 20 different stock markets, a REIT index,…
The global rally in bonds has extended to new records this month as trade and recession fears have moved to the fore. The mid- and even long-term bonds of many developed countries are now trading at negative nominal yields, a…
Since the bottom of the crash 10 years ago, the S&P 500 has appreciated by a compound average of 15% per year, one of the strongest runs in history. S&P 500 Real Total Returns (after inflation, including dividends) Short-term…
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" How much cash should…
The average piker would be better off in a savings account, but it has never been easier to be an elite investor. A haphazard approach to investing is the default among the public. Investors see an array of options from…
Memory is fallible, and routines can change for convenience or on a whim. Using a static, printed checklist ensures that every item is completed, every time. Checklists are routines that have been optimized by time and experience. Do exactly this,…
Most investors know that the US stock market is overvalued, as is often the case during the late stages of a bull market. This however doesn't keep them from staying long and bullish, since short-term expectations are predominant. In the…
Tactical asset allocation (TAA) starts with a highly-diversified asset allocation, of the kind inspired by Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio (1/4 each in stocks, bills, bonds, and gold). We'll do better later by adding additional asset classes, but even this simple…