The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve have responded aggressively to the economic costs of shutdowns, resulting in a massive expansion of the money supply and concern over the future stability of the US dollar. So far, inflation has remained…
A bear market is a value restoration process. Assets that had previously been priced for poor returns can again be expected to appreciate handsomely. Not only are prospective returns higher after declines, but risks are lower, as prices are no…
The 5-asset momentum model from my newsletter is down just 5.6% this month through yesterday. Buy-and-hold for that portfolio is down 18%, same as the S&P. The strategy shed stocks and REITs on the first trading day of March, as…
My readers are likely open to the possibility of cultivating a portfolio that betters indexing when it comes to risk and long-term returns. Some may even be familiar with popular asset allocation systems like dual momentum and risk parity.…
A motorsailer may not be the fastest boat, but it will always get there In my newsletter I track two exceedingly simple models, one for value and one for momentum, as applied to 20 different stock markets, a REIT index,…
The global rally in bonds has extended to new records this month as trade and recession fears have moved to the fore. The mid- and even long-term bonds of many developed countries are now trading at negative nominal yields, a…
Since the bottom of the crash 10 years ago, the S&P 500 has appreciated by a compound average of 15% per year, one of the strongest runs in history. S&P 500 Real Total Returns (after inflation, including dividends) Short-term…
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" How much cash should…
The average piker would be better off in a savings account, but it has never been easier to be an elite investor. A haphazard approach to investing is the default among the public. Investors see an array of options from…
Memory is fallible, and routines can change for convenience or on a whim. Using a static, printed checklist ensures that every item is completed, every time. Checklists are routines that have been optimized by time and experience. Do exactly this,…